Polling Insights for the 2024 Presidential Race
As we dive into the excitement of the 2024 presidential race, new polling from AtlasIntel is making waves. CEO Andrei Roman has revealed that President Trump has a remarkable 70% chance of winning. This comes from their latest figures, and it’s worth noting that AtlasIntel was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2020. In a conversation with Pedro Azevedo, who leads U.S. coverage at AtlasIntel, Roman pointed out that Trump’s position remains strong despite all the chaos in today’s political arena.
Trump’s Advantages Over Harris
Roman believes Trump holds advantages that Kamala Harris will find difficult to overcome. The current poll shows Trump with a slight lead—around 3 points nationally. This is crucial, especially in swing states where momentum seems to be favoring Trump more and more, like a boomerang returning home. Even with the media’s affection for Harris and endorsements from celebrities like Taylor Swift, public sentiment hasn’t turned against President Trump.
“I’d give Trump a 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%,” Roman said bluntly. He questioned what Harris could possibly do to change Trump’s national advantage, saying frankly, “Honestly, I’m not seeing it.” Despite her media backing and high-profile friends, Trump continues to lead.
The Rollercoaster of Politics
Roman likened U.S. politics to a rollercoaster—fast-paced and unpredictable. Big events can fade from memory quicker than you can say “viral TikTok.” He pointed out how quickly people forget things and are always reacting to new developments. “People forget things fast,” he explained.
“I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%. What more could Kamala do or could her campaign do to reverse the advantage that Trump has nationally? And I don’t really see it at this point.”
The CEO of AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election.… pic.twitter.com/y9C50G0SBg
— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) September 17, 2024
While he firmly believes in Trump’s 70% chance of victory, Roman reminds us that anything can happen as election day approaches. He mentioned the famous “October surprise”—that unexpected twist that can turn an election upside down right before voters head to the polls. “A lot can change quickly,” he noted, suggesting that even though Trump appears ahead now, surprises may still alter the landscape.
Looking Ahead: Swing State Polling
In the coming week, AtlasIntel plans to release swing state polling data which should give us an even clearer picture of where things stand. For now, it looks like President Trump is positioned well compared to many other polls out there. As we draw closer to the election in 2024, everyone will be watching closely—can Harris make a comeback or will Trump’s inherent advantages carry him across the finish line once again?
Political Climate and Recent Events
On a dramatic note, President Trump referred to his recent assassination attempt as indicative of our divided political climate—taking aim at Kamala Harris and Joe Biden for their incendiary remarks. Although we don’t know much about what motivated either gunman yet, Trump suspects comments made by Harris and Biden may have fueled reckless actions from shooter Ryan Wesley Routh over the weekend.
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