President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop a migrant caravan walking north, warning that the migrants “will not be accepted.”
“Here we go again!” Trump wrote on social media. “They will not be accepted! MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED.”
Trump said Mexico, the governor of Texas, Border Patrol, and ICE had been told. He gave no deadline, named no specific tariff rates, and did not say which goods would be hit. He also did not say what legal authority he would use.
That last part matters. The Supreme Court ruled Feb 20, 2026, in Learning Resources v. Trump, that the emergency powers law known as IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. Tariffs imposed under other laws, such as Section 232 national security tariffs, were not affected. The administration has since used other trade laws, including Section 122 and Section 301, for replacement tariffs.
So the threat is real in tone, but the how is still unanswered. Mexico is America’s largest trading partner, with bilateral commerce totaling $96.34 billion in September, according to FreightWaves. A tariff fight would hit both sides fast.
The caravan at the center of it
An estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, set off Tuesday from Tapachula, near the Guatemalan border, according to Reuters. Spanish news agency EFE reported the group initially included roughly 2,000 people. The group is still far from the U.S. border.
Reuters reported the migrants hoped the Democrats’ midterm win last week could open a path for them to live and work in the United States. That hope is doing a lot of work here, since U.S. immigration law did not change on election night.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged Thursday that a group is walking north. She also pushed back, saying no migrant caravan has reached the northern border since Trump returned to office in January 2025. She said Mexican authorities are working to manage the groups now traveling through southern Mexico.
The two sides are not really arguing about the same thing. Trump is focused on the group moving now. Sheinbaum is focused on the border, where she says no caravan has arrived on his watch.
Trade talks hang in the balance
The threat comes while the U.S. and Mexico are negotiating a trade agreement, after Trump chose in July not to extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact. That timing is not an accident. Tariffs are Trump’s favorite lever, and he pulls it when he wants action now.
Conservatives want a secure border, and they want it enforced, not just talked about. A tariff threat puts pressure on Mexico to act before the group gets anywhere near Texas. It also puts American businesses and consumers in the middle, since higher tariffs usually mean higher prices here at home.
That is the tension to watch. Border enforcement is popular. A trade war with our biggest trading partner is a harder sell if prices jump. Trump is betting Mexico blinks first.
For now, the caravan keeps walking, Mexico says it has the situation in hand, and Trump says there will be no leniency. Mexico has heard this song before. We will see who moves first.
Sources:
- Reuters via FroggyWeb: Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not halt migrants
- FreightWaves: Trump threatens to double Mexico tariffs over alleged migrant influx
- BriefGov: Tariffs and Trade Authority, including Learning Resources v. Trump, Feb 20, 2026
